Before the charts this week, I wanted to clear up the “Team Plays” column based on some feedback from Twitter. The “Team Plays” column is the total plays for a particular team, and not the minute adjusted number of plays a player was on the field for. The adjustment for minutes played is made in the Run % calculation. I’ve left the “Team Plays” unadjusted get an idea of how many opportunities to run the ball. Generally, NRL games have around 300 play the balls and about 150 per team. If you’re seeing a team with more than that number...
Continue reading...July 2020
Set restart margin: one of these things is not like the others – NRL Round 10 2020 stats and trends
Over the past few weeks on the Eye Test and on my personal twitter account, I’d been investigating that the fact there was a negative correlation between set restart differential and margin. It appeared that the top four teams were strategically giving away more restarts as a way of setting their defense. On the weekend, the wonderful Jack Snape penned a tremendous article for the ABC expanding on that theory. If you’ve not read it, then please take some time, and have a read. It is very much worth your time. It’s the type of quality analysis you don’t usually...
Continue reading...NRL Round 9 advanced statistics – Involvement Rate
The last of my advanced NRL statistics rounds out our look at Round 9. Involvement Rate combines Run % and Tackle % to estimate the amount of plays during a game that a player was involved with whilst on field. It should be used to track player work rate and primarily is an indicator of the quantity (but not quality) of effort put in my middle forwards. First up is the all minutes chart Souths forward Patrick Mago takes top spot this week, with an involvement rate of nearly 29% during his 10 minutes on field. This rate would estimate...
Continue reading...NRL Round 9 advanced statistics – Tackle %
NRL Round 9 is complete which means we can look at some advanced statistics. This time it is Tackle %, which estimates the percentage of opponent plays that a player completed a tackle whilst on the field. You can find the article discussing the thoughts behind it here. It should be used to estimate effort in defense. Firstly, let’s look at all players for Round 9 Nat Butcher pulls off a rare double – hitting the top of the all minutes and more than 40 minutes played list. Tackling at a rate of nearly 45% in 46 minutes is a...
Continue reading...NRL Round 9 advanced statistics – Run %
With NRL Round 9 complete we can have a look at one of my advanced statistics for rugby league, Run %. This statistic aims to estimate the percentage of team plays that a player completed a run during his time on the field. It is used to estimate workload with the ball. Firstly, we will look at all players for Round 9. Despite a chronic knee injury, Andrew Fifita can still turn it on in limited minutes, with 9 runs in 13 minutes for a Run % of 43.6%. It’s likely that percentage would have declined had he played more...
Continue reading...Set restarts: If you’re not cheating, you’re not trying
In last weeks trends and notes post, I showed there was a negative correlation between set restarts and margin, which had been positive from Round 3 to Round 7. With another week of matches completed, I thought I’d dig a bit deeper into this to see if I could find out what was leading to this. The reason I find this so interesting is that it doesn’t conform with traditional rugby league thinking. Possession is treasured, and statistics like run metres correlate with winning games (keep in mind correlation doesn’t equal causation). Yet by giving away more set restarts, you’re...
Continue reading...