With Round 14 complete it’s time to look at one of my advanced statistics, Run %. For those new to the site, I’d recommend reading this post on Run % which details how it is calculated and how to use it.
To summarise, it estimtes the percentage of runs that a player made during his time on the field, adjusted for an estimate of how many times thier team had the ball. After all, you can only run the ball if you team possesses it. More possessions usually equates to more runs.
The idea behind it is that most statistics about runs are volume based, so you will only ever see high minute players. Adjusting for minutes played and times helps identify those middle and interchange forwards who play with a high motor but don’t play huge minutes. Think Neslon Asofa-Solomona, Christian Welch, Blake Lawrie, Moeaki Fotuaika and Francis Molo.
Here’s the leading NRL players for Round 14 without a minute restriction
Whilst he couldn’t take top spot again this week in Tackle %, Eye Test legend Daniel Alvaro has decided to branch out and grab first in Run %. Alvaro had a Run % of 22.1% in Round 14, meaning he completed a run in one in every five possessions the Warriors had whilst he was on the field. The Roosters Daniel Fifita and Patrick Mago from Souths were the only other player this round to top 20%, and when you consider the usual Run % for middle forwards ranges from 10-12%, it’s a huge effort.
Moving on, lets look at the 40 minute plus players for this round.
Tevita Tatola from the Rabbitohs takes top spot for players hitting the minute restriction this week, at over 19%, a huge effort to be at nearly 20% in 43 minutes. James Taumo (17.84%) and David Klemmer (16.96%) make up the rest of the top three.
Another to note is Clint Gutherson, with 30 runs in 80 minutes making this list in ninth place. Considering he broke the NRL record for most metres in a game with well over 300 it’s not surprising to see him there. The average Run % for fullbacks is 8.5%, meaning Gutherson nearly lapped the field with his 14.8%.
To finish up we’ll take a look at the season leaders for Run %.
Andrew Fifita drops out of top stop due to a minimum minutes requirement (250 total), meaning Nelson Asofa-Solomona grabs first spot with a season Run % of 17.6%. If he returns to the field this season, even just for one game he’ll probably jump straight back in and challenge Asofa-Solomona for first given his high workload off the bench this season.
Manly’s Taniela Paseka has been very important for the Sea Eagles with Addin Fonua-Blake and Martin Taupau missing time this season, and with a Run % of 15.46% he’s shown that an increase in minutes hasn’t dampened his workload. If anything it’s improved as his time on field has risen, a rare feat.