The home and away segment of the competition is over, which means we can take a look at who were the advanced statistical leaders for the 2024 National Rugby League season. I’m using regular season numbers only because I’d like to normalise putting finals stats into a completely different bucket.
As noted last year during this analysis, most of these metrics are adjusted for possession, and with good reason. Last year the Panthers had at least 7% more play the balls than the second placed team, and 20% more play the balls than Canterbury. This season the Warriors averaged 159.8 play the balls per contest, 14% more than Brisbane’s 138.9.
That’s over three full sets of six more per game, and over the course of a season those extra chances to accumulate stats add up.
With that in mind, almost all the metrics below are normalised at 270 play the balls per season, which was the historic average over the past 10 seasons up until 2022. It’s crept a bit higher with the last four seasons all averaging 280+ play the balls per contest, and I might have to bump up the normalised play the ball number for these metrics next season.
There are explainers for most of these metrics on the site, which I’ll link in each section where available. Let’s get on to the leaders.
Eye Test Player Contribution Rating (ETPCR)
The Eye Test Player Contribution Rating (ETPCR) is a metric that weights stats that correlate with winning (eg tries, line breaks, run metres) and those that correlate with losing (eg tries or line breaks caused, missed tackles, errors, penalties conceded) and normalises them for possession. Then we apply that weight to each game, and you end up with a with a number that estimates the points added or subtracted by a player for each match by their statistical output.
The threshold here is 14 games, meaning everyone has played more than half a season.
James Tedesco managed to hold on to the top spot for ETPCR based on season average, thanks to a +5.659 in the final round against South Sydney. Jahrome Hughes managed second place here at +3.005 per game, even with an ETPCR of +7.121 in the Storm’s annihilation of Brisbane on Thursday. Reece Walsh was third at +2.395 from the 14 games he played, ahead of Trbojevic in fourth at +2.210 from 18 games.
Hughes won the ABC’s player of the year award, and as an update on the post on this site a fortnight ago, he would win any of the simulated voting I tested as well. The summary version is that Hughes had the more consistent season, while Tedesco had higher highs.
The rest of the list is dominated by spine players and play finishers (Dom Young, Daniel Tupou and Murray Taulagi) as has been the case since I started using this metric, but there are still a few surprises. Braydon Trindall is probably the largest, and his +7.558 from the Sharks 58-6 demolition of the Tigers in Round 19 is the reason why he’s so high on this list. If you remove that game, his season average +1.374 drops to +0.988 and he would fall outside the top 20, and have an ETPCR similar to that of team mate Nicho Hynes.
Sua Fa’alogo was a high impact player for Melbourne off the bench (+1.363) and will create some headaches for the Storm when Ryan Papenhuyzen (+1.676, 5th) is available. A choice any club would be happy to have.
The top forward was Eliesa Katoa from Melbourne at +1.048. There were four other forwards in the top 25 – Harry Grant, Isaah Yeo, Angus Crichton and Haumole Olakau’atu. James Fisher-Harris (0.872) and Payne Haas (0.835) were 26th and 29th respectively.
I’m also going to provide the bottom 25 players this season. Again, I will re-iterate that this is an impact metric, not a talent metric. Some players are put into positions where the role they are playing causes them to sacrifice generating positive statistics for the good of the team, or the role they are given doesn’t bring out the best of them.
Additionally, wingers and centres usually fare poorly here because most tries are scored in their defensive areas. It’s not necessarily their fault but that’s who the data providers are assigning the try and line break causes to. Don’t blame me, I’m just the messenger.
With that in mind, here’s the bottom 25 players by ETPCR this season.
Eels fans won’t be shocked to see Talagi here. As talented as he is with the ball, he does have some very concerning defensive issues. Panthers fans will see how the club patched up notorious turnstile Paul Alamoti (-2.24 in 2023, -0.28 in 2024) and be extremely excited to see a similar improvement with Talagi next season. For a player with known defensive liabilities, there isn’t a better place to be headed.
Alofiana Khan-Pereira is another interesting name on this list, as he led the NRL in tries scored but ended up with the 9th worst ETPCR of the season. It’s another tale of attacking stats only showing half the game. Khan-Pereira was 3rd in the NRL for line breaks caused, 7th for tries caused and 12th for errors created (see below). Fox Sports stats have him down for 24 try causes, meaning for every try he scored he was letting one in. When you put his numbers in perspective like this, it’s not hard to see why his ETPCR is so low.
The other problem with this list is that players who have had bad performances generally don’t stay in first grade, so limiting this list to a threshold of 14 games isn’t a true representation of the lowest ETPCR scores this season. For example, if I drop the threshold to just two games played, there are seven players below Talagi alone, and another nine between Talagi and Faataape.
Players like Api Koroisau and Cameron Murray showing up on this list again emphasises that this is an impact metric, not a talent metric. As impactful as Koroisau has been with the ball for the Tigers this season, he’s first in the NRL for missed tackles, top ten for penalties conceded, was sin binned three times and had double figures for try and line break causes. He had a number of strong games by ETPCR but was dragged down by the really bad ones.
It’s a similar situation for Murray, although his defensive numbers weren’t as bad as Koroisau’s. The issue was his numbers with the ball were well down on 2023, and his participation in some big Souths losses (Rounds 3 and 9) pulled his numbers down as well. There’s a lot of things that you can’t measure by statistics alone, and Koroisau and Murray provide them, and why it’s measuring impact and not ability or talent. No one is questioning how good they can be, but they’ve not been in positions to put up their best numbers statistically on either side of the ball in 2024.
Run metres over expected/run (RMOE/run)
Introduced earlier this season, Run Metres Over Expected per run (RMOE/run) look at how many a player makes more (or less) than what an average player would make from the same starting position and tackle number. Total run metres tells one story, but by comparing it to the expected numbers you can see which players are making more yards in tougher situations.
Below are the top 20 players by RMOE/run this season, from a minimum of 80 runs.
Canberra’s Kaeo Weekes hangs onto the top spot he held at mid-season, averaging 2.35m per run above what an average player would do from the same field position and tackle number. Melbourne’s Jack Howarth only trailed him by 1 centimetre per run over expected at 2.34 RMOE/run, with Reece Robson of North Queensland third at +2.26 RMOE/run.
New Tigers recruit Royce Hunt takes top spot for middle forwards, at +1.46 metres per run over expected. The top overall forward was Siosifa Talakai, who split time between edge back row and centre this season, who had an RMOE/run of +1.66. You could claim Hunt was the top “traditional” forward in that regard but it’s mostly semantics.
The only other forwards ahead of either player are hookers, including Robson and Jacob Liddle (+1.54). Early season favourite Matt Timoko from the Raiders couldn’t keep up his form and ended up 20th at +1.34, tied with Olakau’atu.
Run angles
Also introduced this season, average run angle is one of the best “for the sickos” stats I have. Of course, running straighter doesn’t mean better, and running wider with the ball doesn’t mean worse. But sometimes you can get an idea of how a player is used with ball by how wide or straight the run. Much like all metrics in rugby league there is a lot of context and “it depends” on interpreting this data.
The cliff notes version is that we take the starting point and end point of every run and calculate the angle of α (alpha) in a right triangle. When looking at it earlier this season we noted how Josh Kerr was one of the straightest runners in the NRL for the past few seasons. How did he hold up?
Kerr ended up 5th at 16.81 degrees, with Newcastle’s Daniel Saifiti taking out the mantle of straightest runner in the NRL this season at just 15.81 degrees. Tigers forward Sione Fainu was the only other player under 16 degrees, and his 15.97 degrees per run ranked second. Dogs middle Kurtis Morrin rounded out the top three at 16.10 degrees per run.
Here’s a look at Saifiti’s run spray chart for the season.
And the widest run angle this season, again with a minimum of 80 runs completed.
Dragons half Kyle Flanagan was the widest runner this year, averaging 37.96 degrees per run. Canterbury dummy half Reed Mahoney placed second at 37.18, no doubt aided by his attacking runs from dummy half. Another Bulldog in Blake Taafee ranked third at 36.61 degrees per run.
Generally the wider runs are coming from spine players looking to create uncertainty in the defensive line, which explains everyone on this list except Jack Bird, although he did spend a small amount of time at five eight late in the season. Their goal isn’t to break through the line so it makes sense that they’re running at a wider angle from the point of receiving the ball.
Here’s Flanagan’s run spray chart for the season, showing his wide and short runs at just 5.2 metres per carry.
Error Rate
For error rate, we’re looking at the number of touches (or receipts or possessions, depending on the vernacular you like to use) a player averages per error. Total errors is one stat, but
Historically players who make a high rate of errors don’t last long in first grade, which is why the threshold for this stat is quite low. After 4-5 games or half a dozen errors, players creating a high rate of mistakes will usually get hooked unless they’re Reece Walsh or Khan-Pereira and can create more points than they throw away.
Below is the top 25 this season with a minimum games played threshold of five matches, and/or a minimum of five errors made. For error rate, lower is bad, higher is good.
Jake Tago from Parramatta comes in with the lowest error rate in the last five seasons at 7.55 touches per error, from 11 mistakes in eight games. Siua Wong from the Roosters was second at 10.17 with Edward Kosi from the Warriors in third at 10.50 receipts per error.
You’ll notice a lot of Eels and Broncos in this list, which is a good indication of how their season went. Last season Maika Sivo and Shaun Lane were the only Eels in this list, and for Brisbane it was just Reece Walsh and Selwyn Cobbo. This season both clubs have four each in this list. Walsh wasn’t too far out either, but did improve. His error rate of 14.28 was an upturn on his 13.7 rate from 2023 and placed him 26th for 2024.
Tackle Rate
The quick version of this metric (and most of the ones following), is that they’re estimating the frequency of each stat occurring per minute and additionally adjusted for possession.
The example for completing a tackle is that if two players make 40 tackles, but Player A makes them in 80 minutes and Player B in 60 minutes, then Player B has a better rate of completing tackles. Similarly, if Player A faced 140 play the balls whilst Player B faced 120 from their opposition, Player A had more opportunities to make a tackle. After all, you can’t tackle an opponent if their team doesn’t have the ball.
Here’s the top 20 by tackle rate for 2024, with a minimum of 250 minutes played.
Penrith middle Liam Henry has taken top spot for Tackle Rate, completing a tackle on 32.5% of plays the Panthers faced. This indicates he’s completing a tackle on one in every three play the balls whilst on field. Second place goes to the Dragons Toby Couchman (and you’ll be hearing his name a lot over the next few stats) at 30.35% and Brisbane dummy half Tyson Smoothy was third at 30.20%.
Parramatta’s J’maine Hopgood was the only other player above 30%, and when you consider he plays over 55 minutes per game that’s an exception rate. This season there were just four players above 30%, last year there were six.
Ball Runner Rate
The same methodology as above applies here for Ball Runner Rate, substituting runs completed with tackles, and opponent play the balls with team play the balls. This isn’t measuring the quality of a run (that’s for RMOE/run), but measuring how often a run is made.
Here are the top 20 by ball runner rate, again with a minimum of 250 minutes played.
First place goes to Parramatta backrower Luca Moretti, with a ball runner rate of 16.33%. That’s only the third rate above 16% since 2020, and the first since 2020. Josh Kerr was as close to 16% as you can get in second place at 15.99%, with no other player above 14.62%, a huge gap between the top two and the rest of the pack.
Thid place went to the Cowboys middle Thomas Mikaele at 14.61%, who is someone I’d been a proponent of since his time at the Wests Tigers. He was too good to be playing outside the NRL and it’s great he’s found a home in North Queensland.
Support/Decoy Rate
For this metric we are tracking option runs (either support or decoy) per minute adjusted for possession. Again we’re not measuring quality of a decoy or support run, just that a player was running one of those lines.
Here’s the top 20 again with the 250 minute limit.
Couchman grabs top spot in another measurement, running a decoy or option run on 11% of every play the Dragons had this season. Second place goes to the only other player above 10% in Reuben Cotter of the Cowboys.
Cotter’s number is incredibly impressive as he ran for 2.5x as many option runs as Couchman, was the only player in the top 18 above 50 minutes, and the only player in the top 35 above 60 minutes. Not only does Cotter get involved in a lot of defense, but he’s also putting in effort without the ball in attack as well.
Also worth noting is that the Dragons have three of the top four spots, and the Cowboys have three of the top seven, indicating how much Shane Flanagan and Todd Payten like having forwards in motion during attacking phases.
Involvement Rate
Lastly for the effort statistics, we have involvement rate, which combines the previous three metrics into one, trying to gauge the highest work rate in the NRL from both sides of the ball.
As usual, the top 20 with a 250 minute threshold is below.
Given his dominance in two of the previous three metrics, Couchman grabs top spot for Involvement Rate on the back of his tackle and option run numbers, completing a tackle, run or option run on 25.98% of all plays from a Dragons game, or one in every four plays.
Second place goes to Moretti from Parramatta, also above 25% at 25.71%, while departing Warriors Jazz Tevaga rounded out the top three at 24.91%.
After Liam Henry in fourth, we had three Bulldogs in Sam Hughes, Kurtis Morrin and Max King, all hovering around 24%. The Bulldogs proclivity for high motor middles is evident here and part of the culture that Cameron Ciraldo has instituted.
King specifically has done something not many other middle are able to do, which is keep up a level of effort as minutes increased. He’s the only player in the top 20 averaging more than 50 minutes per game. Usually as players pass the 40 minute per game mark these effort metrics start to tail off.
Kick angles
For kicking, we’re checking the α (alpha) angle for a right triangle from a kick origin to a kick end point. There is some more obvious takeaways from kick angle than run angle, as wider kick angles tend to come from attacking kicks (orange line) than yardage kicks (blue line). Some players are purely long kickers, whilst others are mostly used in attacking situations.
Here’s the top 10 narrowest kickers for 2024 from a minimum of 40 attempts.
Jock Madden had the straightest kicks this season, at an average angle of just 17.5 degrees. This was ahead of Jack Wighton at 19.39 and Kaeo Weekes from Canberra at 19.99.
Here’s a look at the kick spray chart for Madden, showing how arrow straight his kicks were this season.
Now here are the top ten widest average kick angles by players for the NRL 2024 season, again with at least 40 kicks attempted.
Te Maire Martin had the highest kick angle at 32 degrees, ahead of Tyran Wishart at 31.9 and Brad Schneider at 30.8. Cameron Munster was the only other player with an average kick angle above 30 degrees.
Below is the kick spray chart for Martin this season, which shows the volume and width of attacking kicks which led to his wider kick angle than the rest of the NRL.
