LeagueEyeTest

Why you should believe in the Cronulla Sharks this season

The match up between first placed Cronulla and the second placed Sydney Roosters on Saturday evening was billed as match of Magic Round and easily lived up the billing. With a 38-30 win, the Sharks were able to silence some of the doubters who put their hot start down to a pillowy soft draw, but after consecutive wins over the Storm and the Roosters, those comments are starting to disappear. The expected point chart for the game shows just how much Cronulla dominated field position. The key was Cronulla scoring 40% more points than expected in this game, well above...

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Why can’t Manly maintain a lead?

There’s plenty of interesting match ups leading into Magic Round after the conclusion of NRL Round 10. The Sharks still have a firm grasp on first place and will be facing the hottest team in the competition Saturday evening. Canberra and Canterbury kick things off in the battle of two of the big overachievers. The Warriors woes continue against Penrith on Sunday afternoon, looking broken and tired and desperately needing a week off. The Cowboys will face the only team in the competition that’s worse than them defensively. But this week I’m most interested in the Manly and Brisbane game...

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What’s up with the Wahs? April NRL efficiency update

Another month has passed in NRL season 2024 and we’re going to have another league wide efficiency update after some team specific deep dives on the Eels and Bulldogs. This marks one third of the way through the season already and the trends we’re seeing are more substantiated. And one such trend is the Warriors being winless in their last four games and having just three competition points to show from their last five outings. Their inability to score points should have coach Andrew Webster worried. This was meant to be the “easy” stretch of their season, with games against...

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The Parramatta Eels have learned nothing from last season

Another round, another second half flame out by the Parramatta Eels. When they found themselves behind against Manly in the second half, they doubled down on some incredibly poor discipline and let the game slip away from them. Unfortunately, the team hasn’t learned the first law of holes – when you’re in one, stop digging. The depressing thing for Eels fans is that things hasn’t changed much from last season. This is from last year’s post on the site after Round 8: “When they have the majority of possession, they make metres quite well through the middle of the field....

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Canterbury’s commitment to defense emphasises how unserious the Cowboys are

If you watched both Sunday games from NRL Round 7, there’s some very obvious conclusions about the sides that played. Other than the Knights losing their 2023 identity and the Sharks running up a score against a bottom nine side at home, that is. The first is that the long path for Cameron Ciraldo’s defensive system to pay dividends appears to finally be here. The Bulldogs commitment to defense in 2024 has been tremendous and as terrible as the Newcastle were, Canterbury didn’t let them in the match at any point. The second is that North Queensland are easily the most...

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Are the Canberra Raiders actually good this season?

Could the Canberra Raiders be a smokey for a top four spot in 2024? That would seem utterly insane considering their difficulty in beating the NRL’s only winless team on Sunday evening. However, I’ve got some numbers that say they might be. Before you close the tab and think I’ve lost the plot, please at least hear me out. It sounds unlikely but all I’m asking is for you to read through the analysis below before disagreeing. It might not be as crazy as it sounds. There’s some data provided below from their performances this season that suggest they have...

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