As passionate as the Warriors faithful are, I don’t think many of them in their wildest dreams could have envisioned a start to the season like this. With all due respect to THE Dolphins (and somewhat the Raiders), the Warriors have always been the people’s team. If you don’t enjoy watching Shaun Johnson play, then I wonder if you have the ability to feel anything at all. Up the Wahs. The media weren’t particularly high on them either in the pre-season, with quite a number of outlets picking them to finish up either 16th or with the wooden spoon. Even...
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How far down field are NRL teams playing the ball?
When I launched the Eye Test’s expected points model (ETxP) for the National Rugby League over a year ago I had some new types of analysis planned for the season. Sadly after losing access to some of the data I had to shelve most of those plans. However they were only shelved temporarily and not binned completely. Thankfully with the return of data needed to calculate ETxP I can start these up again. With Round 6 of the 2023 season now complete, it’s time to start using them for more than just expected points. Thank you for reading The Rugby...
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The NRL’s over and under achievers of the first month of 2023 by expected points
The first month the 2023 NRL season is complete, and we’re starting to get a picture of where teams are sitting performance wise. Some teams have had easier runs with the draw, and others harder. Other teams have had terrible luck with injury and others have had some balls bounce their way. And some teams are the Wests Tigers and will be forever doomed to ineptitude until changes are made. Given this, how do we more accurately assess performance from all seventeen National Rugby League teams over the first month of the season? The way we’re going to do this...
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Why are we getting so many close games in NRL season 2023?
At the end of the first four rounds of the NRL 2023 season, the average margin thus far this season is 9.1 points per game, or roughly half of what it was during the peak Vlandoball era of 2021 (18.3) for the same rounds. I wish that was a misprint. Not that I’m complaining, and I’m sure fans and broadcasters aren’t either after. Close games mean more engaged viewers meaning happier broadcasters. If only there was a way for the head of the NRL to use this and extract some more compensation out of said broadcasters. But I digress. It...
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The return of NRL expected points and Souths poor second half field position
First up this week is a bit of good news. I’ve managed to be able to produce some Eye Test Expected Points (ETxP) data for a few games this season, specifically the Round 2 and 3 losses by South Sydney. Hopefully I’ll be able to continue producing them throughout the season but no promises. Secondly, one of the reasons we’re focusing on Souths, is that their two losses this season can be traced back to a lack of quality field position in the second half and their inability to contain their opponents in that same period. For those new to...
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Just how young is the current Canterbury team? Is the NRL getting younger?
It’s funny how the littlest things can provide some inspiration. But first, for those who don’t want to read the next 1600 words I’ll give some quick answers. Very young, and slightly yes but more so for bench players than anywhere else. Now we can get back on track now regarding inspiration. Case in point – randomly checking my @LeagueEyeTest mentions on Thursday afternoon – which is usually a slow period since most of my content is posted Mon/Tues – I see that someone has tagged me in a tweet from Phil Gould. A cold shiver raced down my spine....
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