Analysis

Can we project 2023 NRL player salaries with statistics?

Every season there are always questions around whether NRL players are actually “earning” their salaries. html It’s low hanging fruit. Find a player who’s (allegedly) being paid big money having a bad run of form, find some talking heads from another era to question their performance and you’ve got yourself an easy story. What if there a way we could quantify how much these players are worth based on how they perform on field? Could you convert their on field accomplishments (both good and bad) to a salary number and use that to determine if a player is being over...

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NRL season 2022 – the unwinding of 2021’s statistical inflation

One of the great tragedies of the 2021 National Rugby League season was that it created a set of circumstances which resulted in some impossible benchmarks that players would never reach again. Untested rule changes widened the gap between the haves and the have nots, and the result was some very predictable outcomes and unparalleled statistical accumulation. Friend of the site Ben Quagliata wrote about it earlier this season: “If anything, 2021 has had a negative impact on how we view these stars. 2021 has created negative discourse about how we measure the performances of a Tedesco, a Trbojevic, a...

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Advanced statistic leaders for NRL season 2022

Last week saw the end of the regular NRL season for 2022, which means we can finally look at who topped the Eye Test’s advanced statistics for the year and see who were the top performers. There’s a post on the site from earlier in 2022 for leaders from the first half of the season if you wanted to see who was leading at that point, but as the Broncos showed there’s no prizes for doing well in just the first half of the year. Newer Eye Test readers may not be familiar with some of these metrics, and if...

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How different are NRL regular season games from finals games statistically?

The meaningless games are over and the NRL finals kick off this weekend, with not much separating the top seven teams on the field (as I broke down last week). With that in mind, I wanted to have a look at what changes statistically between the regular season and finals games? Are these games played as differently as you’d think watching them? Do teams focus more on defense and try to play conservatively? Since I know attention spans are short these days, the tl;dr version is there’s no dramatic shift, and the changes are in line with what you’d expect...

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Just a bunch of random NRL stats

After a string of team related posts, there’s no overarching theme for this week, so lets just get straight into a bunch of random stats with no common thread other than they’re things I’ve been looking at. The Eels poor defense is masked by possession Friend of the site Mike Meehall Wood posted a fantastic piece on the Eels last week (including some Eye Test stats) so I’d suggest reading that first. Both myself and Mike noticed the huge numbers of metres per set being given up by both teams in the Parramatta v Manly clash on Friday night As...

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Are the Wests Tigers doing anything differently under Brett Kimmorley?

I don’t think I’ve ever had an article requested as much as this post. After the Michael Potter/Trent Barrett comparison was posted a few weeks back, I lost track of the number of requests by Twitter and email to look into the Tigers performances under Brett Kimmorley as opposed to Michael Maguire. And in true Eye Test fashion I’ve not let my readers down (I hope). I’m not going to get into any substantial background on this one. Brett Kimmorley is in charge now and the Tigers scored what could their biggest win of the season against Brisbane on Saturday....

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