Analysis

Why are the Newcastle Knights so terrible?

It’s been an eventful weekend in rugby league, so I won’t waste any time in getting into the issue that everyone is talking about. Why is the new lighting at Accor Stadium so dark? Wait, that’s not the issue everyone is talking about? *checks notes* Ah I see, my apologies, let’s get to the *real* issue that everyone is talking about. Just why are the Newcastle Knights so terrible, especially in the second half? Two weeks ago when I ran the Eye Test over the Titans and found they aren’t really good at anything statistically, I off-handedly mentioned that that...

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What the Bulldogs are doing better under Potter

When Canterbury previously played South Sydney this season in Round 6, the Dogs succumbed 36-16 to last years grand finalists. That score was closer than the game actually was, with the Rabbitohs giving the Dogs two tries in the last ten minutes of a game they had secured shortly after half time. On Sunday they lost again, with Souths scoring 36 points again. However, this time the Dogs scored 28 of their own, and were leading until as late as the 70th minute. These two games serve as fitting examples of the differences between Canterbury’s performances under the two coaches...

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The largest improvements and regressions in Player Contribution Rating for NRL season 2022

Last week on the Eye Test I released my Player Contribution Rating, which looks at attributing the statistical impact of players during an NRL game. If you didn’t read it, I’d highly recommend the explainer that was posted last week. It is very long but gives a good understanding of how I arrived at using this measurement and what goes into it. It also covers what type of players it does evaluate well, and those it struggles with (hookers). This week we’re continuing with a look at the 2022 season through the ETPCR lens, specifically which players have seen the...

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First half 2022 NRL advanced statistics leaders

With Round 12 ending on Sunday half of the NRL has already passed. Some clubs might wish the whole season is over. And as we did last season, the half way point is time for the regular review of the Eye Test’s advanced statistical leaders over the first half of the season. New readers to the site may not be familiar with some of these metrics, and if that is the case, I’d highly recommend reading the explainers on some of them to get a better understanding of what I am trying to capture with these measurements. But I know...

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Who are the NRL’s biggest front runners? An analysis of unanswered points scored

After a one week dalliance with meme posts in last week’s sock height analysis, which surprisingly resulted in the largest weekly audience for the site in history, the Eye Test is getting back on brand this week. Recently a suggestion was posed to the Rugby League Eye Test twitter account by friend of the site Elliott Richardson, who publishes Rugby League Monthly. He was wondering how many tries a team leading would score before they conceded one in 2021 and then for 2022. This idea really piqued my interest. We all know 2021 was absolutely cooked as a competitive season...

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Another incredibly important Eye Test investigation – a dive into NRL player sock heights

Magic Round for 2022 is over and people in rugby league are staying on brand by doing the one thing they know how do to – fix something that isn’t broken. There’s been suggestions of moving Magic Round out of Brisbane (dumb), rotating it’s location (also dumb) or having multiple Magic Rounds, which is such a galaxy brain rugby league idea that I’m surprised it hasn’t already been decided upon. Find something unique and run it often enough that it’s no longe special. But I’m not here to talk about that this week. I’m going to tackle an incredibly important...

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