Expected Value for NRL Supercoach

Preface: this was posted on NRL SupercoachTalk in early 2019.

Part of the allure of NRL Supercoach for many, including myself, is the fact it is number based. You can’t argue with numbers, unless you’re one of those obsessives who complain about review scores (ONLY AN 8.8!?).

Thanks to this, we can unequivocally state that Damian Cook is better than Michael Lichaa as we have the numbers to prove it. But what if we wanted to prove that someone was scoring better than the average player in the same spot? Could we quantify if a player outperformed their own situation, if they were just making up the numbers or if they were actually a negative on the field?

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NRL Supercoach: Does position matter?

Preface: this was written in early 2018 for NRL SupercoachTalk but seems to have fallen off the face of the internet. I’ve reposted it here as the underlying trends are still relevant even if the specific player data is slightly outdated, especially with the news about Cameron Murray moving to an edge role for Souths in 2020.

Few phrases strike more fear into the heart of a Supercoach than “Player X is set to play on an edge next season.” The thoughts of base stats dropping like Bitcoin prices starts to permeate inside their minds, sending them desperately looking for an alternate gun, a POD or a mid pricer to avoid the indignity of picking a gun who doesn’t live up to their price tag.

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