NRL

Is there anything the Gold Coast Titans do well?

Another round, another disastrous performance from the Gold Coast Titans. The fact Justin Holbrook has held on to his spot this long is solely due to his team playing in the relative obscurity of the Gold Coast with limited expectations. Had he been coaching a Sydney team, he’d be subject to more scrutiny than Michael McGuire was considering the astonishing way they’ve been losing, and the effort or lack thereof involved. There weren’t many people predicting big things from the Titans this season, given how green their spine players were and a lack of depth. After limping into the finals...

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The largest improvements and regressions in Player Contribution Rating for NRL season 2022

Last week on the Eye Test I released my Player Contribution Rating, which looks at attributing the statistical impact of players during an NRL game. If you didn’t read it, I’d highly recommend the explainer that was posted last week. It is very long but gives a good understanding of how I arrived at using this measurement and what goes into it. It also covers what type of players it does evaluate well, and those it struggles with (hookers). This week we’re continuing with a look at the 2022 season through the ETPCR lens, specifically which players have seen the...

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Explainer: Eye Test Player Contribution Rating (ETPCR) for the NRL

It’s been an up and down year here at the Eye Test. We’ve had the biggest week in the site’s history recently thanks to a post about sock heights that I expected to be one of the least read posts of the season. February saw the launching the Eye Test’s expected points model for the NRL, which had a tremendous reception. That lasted about six weeks until Round 2 when the data source I was using disappeared. Should that data ever return, so will ETxP, but for now it’s on ice. So much like the modern-day rugby league middle forward,...

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First half 2022 NRL advanced statistics leaders

With Round 12 ending on Sunday half of the NRL has already passed. Some clubs might wish the whole season is over. And as we did last season, the half way point is time for the regular review of the Eye Test’s advanced statistical leaders over the first half of the season. New readers to the site may not be familiar with some of these metrics, and if that is the case, I’d highly recommend reading the explainers on some of them to get a better understanding of what I am trying to capture with these measurements. But I know...

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Who are the NRL’s biggest front runners? An analysis of unanswered points scored

After a one week dalliance with meme posts in last week’s sock height analysis, which surprisingly resulted in the largest weekly audience for the site in history, the Eye Test is getting back on brand this week. Recently a suggestion was posed to the Rugby League Eye Test twitter account by friend of the site Elliott Richardson, who publishes Rugby League Monthly. He was wondering how many tries a team leading would score before they conceded one in 2021 and then for 2022. This idea really piqued my interest. We all know 2021 was absolutely cooked as a competitive season...

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Another incredibly important Eye Test investigation – a dive into NRL player sock heights

Magic Round for 2022 is over and people in rugby league are staying on brand by doing the one thing they know how do to – fix something that isn’t broken. There’s been suggestions of moving Magic Round out of Brisbane (dumb), rotating it’s location (also dumb) or having multiple Magic Rounds, which is such a galaxy brain rugby league idea that I’m surprised it hasn’t already been decided upon. Find something unique and run it often enough that it’s no longe special. But I’m not here to talk about that this week. I’m going to tackle an incredibly important...

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