NRL Round 13 advanced statistics – Run %

With Round 13 complete it’s time to look at one of my advanced statistics, Run %. For those new to the site, I’d recommend reading this post on Run % which details how it is calculated and how to use it.

To summarise, it estimtes the percentage of runs that a player made during his time on the field, adjusted for an estimate of how many times thier team had the ball. After all, you can only run the ball if you team possesses it. More possessions usually equates to more runs.

The idea behind it is that most statistics about runs are volume based, so you will only ever see high minute players. Adjusting for minutes played and times helps identify those middle and interchange forwards who play with a high motor but don’t play huge minutes. Think Neslon Asofa-Solomona, Christian Welch, Blake Lawrie, Moeaki Fotuaika and Francis Molo.

Here’s the leading players for Round 13 without a minute restriction.

Canterbury’s Sauaso Sue took first place in Run % this round, making a run on a quarter of plays whilst he was on the field. The Panthers Zane Tetevano and Oregon Kafusi from the Eels were the only other players above 20% this round.                

Moving on, lets look at the 40 minute plus players for this round.

Taniela Paseka from Manly placed first here, with a Run % of just over 19%, or nearly one in five plays. With Addin Fonua-Blake again missing time for the Eagles, he’ll be relied upon even more moving forward.

Eye Test favourite Moeaki Fotuaika was just behind Paseka with a Run % of 18.7%. A huge surprise is seeing a fullback in the top three, with the Raiders Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad taking third with a Run % of 17.22%, possibly the first time since I’ve been recording these stats that position other than a middle forward or interchange player has placed in the top three. As I mentioned last week, it’s not uncommon to see a wing or fullback in the top 20, or even top 10 occasionally, but rarely (if ever) in the top five.

To finish up we’ll take a look at the season leaders for Run %.

Andrew Fifita from the Sharks continues to keep at least one finger on first place, with a Run % just over 18% for the season. The Storm’s Nelson Asofa-Solomona is the only player within reach of him, sitting in second place at 17.55%.

Francis Molo ranks third currently with a Run % of 15.59%, with two other teammates also in the top 10 – Jason Taumalolo (15.33%) and Jordan McLean (14.69%).

The Sharks are another team with a number of players ranking highly for this statistic, with three in the top 12. Joining Fifita are Royce Hunt (14.97%) who has rocketed up this list of late and another promising rookie in Toby Rudolf (14.46%), who was hovering around the top five earlier in the season but has dropped of late due to a change in role.

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